Fairytales and Power Rankings

The underdog story and the sorrowful tale of collapse are two of the most dramatic story arcs that make for enthralling narratives. The Armchair Ultra is all about football’s magical ability to spin the most incredible narratives, so this month’s installment, in particular, was written with glee.

There’s nowhere else to start but with Arminia Bielefeld. Third tier Arminia Bielefeld. DFB Pokal finalists. Making it through to the semi-finals, having ousted three Bundesliga teams on the way was a fairytale in itself, but when they then beat defending champions Bayer Leverkusen to book their place in the final they took it to an entirely different level.

If football was anywhere near as great a yarn-spinner as The Armchair Ultra professes it to be, Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen would have been the final and Arminia Bielefeld would already have their hands on the trophy. But sadly, despite beating the reigning champions, the team they finished 49 places below last season, there’s still one final hurdle remaining. One more game to win. One more Bundesliga team to beat before they can become only the second lower league team this century to win one of the Top 5 domestic cups. 14 have made it to the final of their respective cup competitions, including fourth tier Calais RUFC, but only second tier Guingamp left with the trophy. Can Arminia Bielefeld beat Stuttgart on the 24th May to make it two victories for the underdogs?

Whilst Arminia Bielefeld were chasing glory, Inter were embarking on a collapse. 3 straight defeats had them squander first place in Serie A and get knocked-out of the Coppa Italia by cross-city rivals AC Milan. So, after only 2 wins in 9 Serie A games through February and March, Napoli are back on top of Serie A, having won their last 3 to establish a 3 point cushion.

But as with any good narrative, there’s a flicker of hope for the downbeaten Inter. A 3-3 first leg draw with Barcelona keeps Inter’s chances alive in the Champions League semi finals

Below them in Serie A, the fight for places 3 to 8 is still being fiercely contested, with all 6 teams delivering big results in pursuit of Champions League qualification. One-time title pretenders Atalanta currently hold the advantage.

The battle for 2nd to 7th in Ligue 1 is equally exciting, with only 4 points separating Marseille in 2nd and Strasbourg in 7th. Nice, currently in 6th, will be buoyed by their recent victory against PSG that ensured there’d be no unbeaten season for the Parisians.

In Spain, Osasuna have charged up from 14th position to 8th in the space of a month, propelled by 2 draws and 3 straight victories. Above them, Villarreal and Real Betis are engaged in an enthralling battle for 5th, separated now by just a point with 5 games to go. Betis have eaten into the gap over the past 2 months, but were stymied in their chance to jump ahead when the sides met in early April. Villarreal came away with the victory, but 4 points from their subsequent 3 games let Betis right back in.

In Germany, Borussia Dortmund have found form at the right time, climbing up to 6th place and within 3 points of the top 4. They have a hot Freiburg to contend with who are on a run of 3 straight victories. Both clubs have Bayer Leverkusen still to play.

In the England, Aston Villa came painfully close to pulling off a stunning Champions League comeback against PSG, beating them 3-2 at Villa Park, but falling a goal short on aggregate. They followed that up by routing the rampaging Newcastle, ending the Magpies’ 7 win streak. Then Villa ran out of stream, losing to Manchester City and then crashing out of the FA Cup semi finals in a 3-0 defeat to Crystal Palace.

Palace are joined by Manchester City in the FA Cup final and in addition to Arminia Bielefeld and Stuttgart, Bologna, AC Milan, Reims and PSG have also made it through to the finals of their domestic cups. Barcelona beat Real Madrid in the final of the Copa del Rey to claim their 32nd title.

Far below Villa in the Premier League table, Europa League semi finalists Manchester United and Tottenham have both been eclipsed by a rampant Wolves, who’ve strung together 6 wins on the bounce. If not for three very poor teams at the bottom of the table, both clubs would be in a serious fight for survival. Both are still fighting on in Europe though, Manchester United with a semi final against Athletic Club and Tottenham with a semi final against the miraculous Bodø/Glimt.

Still thinking about those Declan Rice free-kicks.

Introducing The Armchair Ultra Power Rankings.

A nuanced ranking of the form teams across Europe’s Top 5 leagues. This is your authoritative view on who’s hot right now.

Let’s go…

1: Barcelona - lost what was supposed to be a dead rubber against Dortmund, but almost turned into a nightmare, but have 12 wins from their last 15. Beat Real Madrid to win the Copa del Rey. Their Champions League semi final against Inter hangs in the balance, but they’re still the team to beat.

2: Manchester City - the days of City struggling to 1 win in 13 games are over. Unbeaten in 8 and riding 4 straight victories. In-form Wolves up next.

3: Roma - 1 defeat in 15. 4 wins from their last 6 including a victory against Inter to put a huge dent in the Nerazzurri’s title aspirations.

4: Strasbourg - 11 games unbeaten, including 6 wins from their last 8. The 2 draws have been against Nice and Monaco with whom their battling for Champions League qualification.

5: Borussia Dortmund - 5 wins from their last 7. On a 3 game win streak, which includes a victory against Barcelona.

6: Napoli - 8 games unbeaten and 3 wins in a row have taken Napoli back to the summit of Serie, where they now hold a 3 point lead over faltering Inter.

7: Newcastle - in blazing form before defeat to Aston Villa. 7 wins from 8, including victory against Liverpool in the EFL Cup Final.

8: Wolves - on a run of 6 straight wins. Fortunate to play 6 of the bottom 7 teams, but wins are wins.

9: Fiorentina - unbeaten in 9 games, including 6 wins. Victories against both Juventus and Atalanta.

10: Como - on a run of 4 straight wins and unbeaten in 5. Making a charge for a top-half finish.

11: Liverpool - on a run of 3 straight wins, but 2 defeats in their last 6 games. Beaten in the EFL Cup final by Newcastle. Crowned Premier League champions last time out against Spurs.

12: Werder Bremen - unbeaten in their last 5 games. 4 straight wins were followed by a draw.

13: Osasuna - 3 straight wins and 5 unbeaten. Results of any kind in their next 2 games against Villarreal and Real Betis will be impressive.

14: Lille - 3 straight wins, 4 wins from 5 their last 5. Their only defeat came against Champions League qualification rivals Lyon.

15: Valencia - unbeaten in 8. 4 of those were wins, but they’ve drawn the last 2. Rock bottom in January, they’re now 7 points clear of the dropzone.

Mo Salah retains his place at the top of the goal contributions chart, but he’s dramatically slowed down since March. Raphinha, on the other hand, continues to spearhead Barcelona’s drive towards the treble, and will top Salah’s numbers by the end of the season if they both continue on current form.

April Goal Contributions Leaders

The ever-present Ousmane Dembélé is joined by red-hot Newcastle pair Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy and the man who scored a hat-trick against Barcelona recently at the top of the goal contributions chart for April.

7 - Serhou Guirassy, Harvey Barnes, Jacob Murphy, Ousmane Dembélé

6 - Raphinha, Georges Mikautadze, Rolando Mandragora, Morgan Rogers

🏆Will we get a fairytale ending?

The dream is still alive. Arminia Bielefeld are just one win away from being crowned DFB Pokal champions and Bodø/Glimt have as much chance as anyone at winning the Europa League.

These are the stories that make The Armchair Ultra love football so dearly. Time to make it happen!

🍕Can Napoli hold on this time?

Napoli led Serie A for a lot of the season and then in February they appeared to implode. Coming off the back of 7 wins in a row they collected only 8 points from their subsequent 7 games, surrendering the league lead and looking lost. Back on top after Inter’s slip-up, with just 4 games to go can they make it stick this time?

They have 4 winnable games and a red hot Scott McTominay driving them forward.

🌳 Can Nottingham Forest climb back into Champions League qualification?

Assailed by a host of in-form teams, Nottingham Forest’s spectacular season is in danger of petering out. Where they finish is entirely in their hands, with a game-in-hand and some attackable fixtures. One final push!